Quantifying Strategic Value in USARPAC Exercise Planning

This project develops a value-based analytical methodology to evaluate and prioritize U.S. Army Pacific (USARPAC) exercises across the Indo-Pacific in support of Operation Pathways objectives under resource constraints. As China’s expanding military capabilities and regional coercion increase operational risk, U.S. defense leaders emphasize resilient posture, adaptive training, and stronger partner capacity. To support exercise planning decisions, the research builds a quantitative value model informed by pairwise comparisons of value measures, structured interviews with USARPAC stakeholders, and analysis of historical and forecasted exercise data. The model produces comparable value scores and weighted drivers that capture each exercise’s expected strategic contribution relative to cost, enabling consistent comparison across options and explicit assessment of trade-offs. This framework helps USARPAC prioritize and sequence exercises to maximize strategic return, strengthen partner networks, and sustain cost-effective execution in a dynamic security environment.