Non-Kinetic Effects in Campaign Wargaming

Modern militaries increasingly rely on Non-Kinetic Effects (NKEs) to shape the battlefield and support traditional warfighting functions, yet wargames struggle to represent their impact. This presentation offers a new methodology for integrating NKEs into operational wargaming by focusing on translating non-kinetic actions, such as communications jamming or cyber intrusions, into quantifiable operational effects. In our model, players deploy a capability that is subject to a probabilist ic adjudication based on the effect type and target type. A successful deployment applies a direct modifier to a standard wargaming element, such as reducing a unit’s combat effectiveness or a player’s ability to see their opponent’s units. To simulate adversary adaptation and learning, repeated use of the same NKE is subject to a decay function, reducing its probability of success over time. This model, with modifiers developed in consultation with subject matter experts, provides a relatively simple yet dynamic method to assess the value of NKEs within a broader operational concept.